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Hub Lottery: A Mathematical Probability Analysis

The formula is correct but you’d have to take into account the actual payouts, not just the single events. This would be the expected payoff if you only rolled one single item in the wheel.

Real Expected Value

roll value (x) probability 3 nuggets 50 3/8^3 3 ingot 100 1/4^3 3 apple 150 1/8^3 3 emerald 200 1/8^3 3 diamond 500 1/8^3 2 nuggets 1 ingot 25 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/4 2 nuggets 1 apple 30 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/8 2 nuggets 1 emerald 35 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/8 2 nuggets 1 diamond 65 3 * 3/8^2 * …

Only 900 spins on average!