Hub Lottery: A Mathematical Probability Analysis

tbh even tho its math its pretty interesting and deserves a read if you want like a small taste of what probability and statistics math is

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This looks very interesting; I approve :100:

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Sometimes I consider finishing college to start to study mathematics and computer science, but @heartts would probably dislike that.

There is so much in maths which I don’t understand. I’m somewhat interested, yet I’m not good at maths.

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very cool survival husband

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it was pretty interesting, I even learned what the Bernoulli formula is

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don’t lie, you are good at Maths smh

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This is very cool McDonalds.

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I’m better Persilla :yawning_face:

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Try me, if you dare.

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Almost as cool as the rod-testing from you and shob. I couldn’t find the post back unfortunately :(

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thx guys i worked rly hard on this

(idk why im making myself sound sarcastic this was actually hard to do)

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nerd.

good work! i’m very proud!!!

now, tell me: how many times would you have to play the lottery to beat Mike in tokens?

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math problem

Johnny has 77 bars of soap, DREX0R comes and gobbles up 13, Ezekiel then grabs 29 bars of soap and then ate them like Joey chestnut. DREX0R didn’t like it so he reached down and grabbed 20 bars of soap that weren’t digested yet. DREX0R then steals 19 more bars of Johnny’s delicious soap and gobbles them too. Ezekiel doesn’t like to be disrespected so he pulls out his .22 and shoots DREX0R point blank in the chest making DREX0R lose 5 bars of soap by coughing them up.

Johnny doesn’t feel safe so he takes the remaining soap and moves to a different neighborhood. DREX0R is in the iv barley hanging and losing 1 soap per day with the insulin machine. A body guard named Sebastian offers protection to drex in exchange for 3 soap a day because Ezekiel is lurking still. DREX0R barters and they decide on 2.5 soap a day.

13 days go by and his body guard hasn’t left his side when he gets an anonymous call from a user called “karlos” with air quotes on his name always. “Karlos” says he should kill DREX0R and split the soap for themselves, when Sebastian says “why can’t I take it for myself?” Then “karlos” says “because I got a trained gunman on you”. Sebastian then looks out the window to see a sniper on him. “Karlos” then says “i could kill him but you would run with the soap but you! That would make him defenseless, so I’m asking you because I’m on the police registration and I can’t get into the hospital”.

Sebastian then grabs a donkey pillow outside as a gift sent to DREX0R and goes to sniff him but finds he’s missing from bed. He looks around the room only to be shot from someone hiding under the bed.

As Sebastian is dizzy and his soap falls to the ground he looks up to see DREX0R holding a gun which he shot him point blank in the chest with a pistol DREX0R then says “you think the gunman was the sniper? No, no, no. The gunman was me, the sniper is just my friend keeping an eye on me, and now I’m gonna give you advice kid. Don’t drop the soap” With one last breath Sebastian dies and DREX0R picks up the soap and runs out the hospital busting through doors.

That might later him and “karlos” meet at an old rundown house where they stored their weapons.
“Grab only what’s necessary, this is a slippery mission and we’re gonna need to take it slow so no heavy gear” said DREX0R. “But why I want to use a grenade or two” said “karlos” that’s when they both heard the click of a trigger and turned around. “FREEZE” said the skinny shadowy figure. “Let us go and no one gets hurt” said “karlos”. “drop the soap dirtbags!” Said the figure. “Alright alright” said DREX0R as he put the bars of soap down. “I want more! And kick them over” the figure said had he stepped into the light revealing a familiar face….

It was Johnny! But he didn’t look like himself, he had lost most of his hair and his teeth were rotten, he had blurting veins and bigger fingers, his clothes were rotten and he smelled like he hasn’t bathed in 2 weeks. “Johnny?” Said DREX0R “ what happened to you man?” “SOCIETY! Yelled Johnny” “EVERYONE JUST WANTS ME FOR MY SOAP! they don’t even say please or thank you they’re all animals who want my soap! They steal and take and I try to give but I can’t! they don’t want my friendship, they just want a clean and easy life. So I turned to drinking, six 3 in 1 bottles a day. I’m not gonna end up dead by someone shooting me for soap DREX0R. I’m gonna die slow by slowly killing a part of me each day with drinking”. “What have we done to you old friend.”said DREX0R “we meant for you to be our friend, not our servant, I am sorry”. “Yeah well sorry don’t cut it when someone else is gonna cut me for a bar of damn soap.” He said as he turned off the safety. “I can’t live like this with people begging me. That’s going to stop and it’s going to stop tonight”. “Karlos” then said “stop drinking you aren’t thinking straight.” Johnny said “oh really? Thinking? You know what I’m thinking? That I can’t get rid of these people! I can’t be in peace! TONIGHT SOMEONES GOING TO DIE!” Johnny then raised the gun and pointed the gun to himself. Then he died.

A loud ringing noise was found in both of their ears as they watched his body fall lifeless my to the ground, a single bar of soap falling out to be picked up by “karlos”. “Karlos then stated weeping at the sight of it as DREX0R picked up his soap he had and stood still in shock of the events that just occurred.

The funeral was a quick one, the body was thrown into a hole and good byes were said. The bar of soap that belonged to Johnny was thrown into the hole, landing onto both his eyes covering them. Both of them set out then, DREX0R carrying a pistol and “karlos” a small double shot shotgun. No words were spoken but they both had words coming into their heads rapidly as they walked to the place Ezekiel owned. “Karlos” then broke the silence and said “I wish we never owned soap man! I just ate 5 of yours out of stress before we walked here! I miss Johnny regardless of when he pulled a gun on us!” DREX0R kept walking silently with karlos.

As they arrived they saw the compound Ezekiel owned to be swarmed with goons. “DAMN IT!” Said DREX0R “how are we going to get in?” “Karlos” then picked up a big sheet of metal lying around and a metal pipe. “At the house I took a welder, I can’t go on knowing my best friend and my wife and family are dead. Besides you I have nothing, nothing! This is my final stand, I’ll draw them in and lead them into a hallway and blow them up, you then make a run for it with the shield I can cover fire!” He said. “Are you crazy? Even if it did work then you die!”. “Karlos” handed him the welder and pipe “it’s time to get to work” he said and went father into the woods to craft the shield, DREX0R followed him tears in his eyes begging him to cease this but was met with no answer and 59 bars of soap being placed into his bag with his other soap and a wielding and hammering sound as “karlos” worked on the shield.

As he finished “karlos” started walking toward the place but then was shoved down by DREX0R “stop I won’t let you die, I lost too much for damn soap”. “you should wash your mouth out” karlos said shoving the shield into DREX0Rs hand taking a grenade he through one into the biggest group killing 12 guards “HEY FACE ME EZEKIEL! he said shooting a guard with his shotgun and then blasting another 2 with another shot as he ducked for cover when he heard “he’s reloading move,move,move!” From the opposing side as almost all the guards moved to get him he struggled pulling out his second grenade then he pulled the pin “this is about to be a clean kill” “karlos” said and then he blew up.

DREX0R with crying from the loss of his friend Renan to the compound using his shield for cover but no one fired as they were stunned by this explosion, he then busted through the door and proceeded to shoot guards constantly left and right killing remorsefully with his pistol, 1 shot to the head killing them and he didn’t miss once picking 2 bars of soap the guards had in their pockets for each kill. He then emptied his mag and threw the guard and proceeded to beat him down killing him before getting shot in the leg by his old friend bill.

“Bill why?” Bill said “He pays 50 soap an hour now, a lot has changed since you got shot. He had a business now and he trusts me running it” the boss has more soap then you can dream of but he told me to kill you but he also said to offer you a job opportunity first, as much as me if not more. Also the name ain’t bill no more, it’s scepter and I’m a man of honor so I challenge you DREX0R if you win take 5x your soap from my lifeless body it’s all in this satchel” he said dropping a huge bag that was perched on the counter, a loud thud occurred and the soap spilled out.

“Deal” DREX0R said. “Dueling rules, 20 paces 1 shot” he handed DREX0R the gun and started to walk before being shot in the head, his body dropping to the floor. “I don’t want your dirty soap, and freaks like you don’t deserve a chance of winning and living”.

“Well, well, well, what do we have here!” Said Ezekiel holding a bar of soap and examining it. “I watched you on my cameras, I know your out of bullets.” Ezekiel then pulled out a revolver “your also wounded in your leg. Your life is forfeit! To me! Your soap is mine! He said “but I’ll give you a chance. wanna know how I made this soap? Gambling! Casinos, betting, Lottery tickets everywhere! I set them up they come to me. But you see there’s one thing I love gambling the most and that’s life.” He snapped his fingers to them DREX0R got restrained by two men “so let’s play a game! Russian roulette! I go first!” He said eating one of DREX0R’s soap putting the gun to his own head.

Click

“Your turn” as he aimed the gun

Click

“Me again!”

Click

“Long game eh?” Ezekiel said

Click

“Last two!” Ezekiel as he aimed the gun at himself

Click

“Bummer.” I guess not everyone wins

Then DREX0R front kicked him with his right foot knocking him down, he then kicked the left guards kneecap with his left foot and left hooked the right guard down. After grabbing the gun the two guards lunged at him only to be met by a roll and a bang.

Lying dead the guards weren’t going to bother them anymore “one last fight Ezekiel?” Said DREX0R. “Warning i fight dirty!” said Ezekiel as he lunged at DREX0R.

The fight went on for minutes, blow for blow, back and forth until Ezekiel knocked DREX0R off the balcony, with a thud DREX0R looked to his right spotting a single bar of soap from the bag scepter showed to him as prize money. “I am invincible! I am immortal! I am Ezekiel!” Ezekiel said taking a display torch from his wall and lighting it with his lighter. As Ezekiel charged DREX0R threw the soap making him slip and fall off the stairs landing headfirst onto the ground. Breaking his neck.

Taking the bar of soap and putting in his pocket DREX0R gave one last powerful right hook, took his own bag of soap, and limped as the house stared to catch on fire.

Arriving back DREX0R swore never to use soap again and put his remaining soap in a vault never seeing it again.


Now mr. “im so good at math try me” how many bars of soap does DREX0R have?

Oh I should’ve put a hidden yeah sorry I like swiped out of this tab when I made it. thanks candlea!

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Log OFF

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Well, that depends on the rolls you get.
If you somehow manage to crack the system and get all triple diamonds, which give you 1500 tokens per game, it would take you 1400676 games to get there (AKA the minimal amount of games to play).
If you somehow managed to roll only nugget - ingot - nugget (the roll that gives you the least amount of tokens), which gives you 20 tokens, it would take you 105050689 games to get there (AKA the maximum amount of games to play).

Therefore, it would take you anywhere between 1400676 to 105050689 games to get the same amount of tokens as mike, that is if we assume you start from 0 tokens.

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WHAT

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hi

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You must be on break or something at the moment.
Did you compute the expected value of a roll as well? (I only skimmed the post and couldn’t find it)

hi cheataster im very tired

roll value (x) probability
nugget 5 3/8
ingot 10 1/4
apple 15 1/8
emerald 20 1/8
diamond 50 1/8

the formula for expected value:

therefore we can sub in for n = 5

idk i barely learned expecte value i mostly went off of google im tire

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The formula is correct but you’d have to take into account the actual payouts, not just the single events. This would be the expected payoff if you only rolled one single item in the wheel.

Real Expected Value
roll value (x) probability
3 nuggets 50 3/8^3
3 ingot 100 1/4^3
3 apple 150 1/8^3
3 emerald 200 1/8^3
3 diamond 500 1/8^3
2 nuggets 1 ingot 25 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/4
2 nuggets 1 apple 30 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/8
2 nuggets 1 emerald 35 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/8
2 nuggets 1 diamond 65 3 * 3/8^2 * 1/8
2 ingot 1 nugget 35 3 * 1/4^2 * 3/8
2 ingot 1 apple 45 3 * 1/4^2 * 1/8
2 ingot 1 emerald 50 3 * 1/4^2 * 1/8
2 ingot 1 diamond 80 3 * 1/4^2 * 1/8
2 apple 1 nugget 50 3 * 1/8^2 * 3/8
2 apple 1 ingot 55 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/4
2 apple 1 emerald 65 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
2 apple 1 diamond 95 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
2 emerald 1 nugget 65 3 * 1/8^2 * 3/8
2 emerald 1 ingot 70 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/4
2 emerald 1 apple 75 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
2 emerald 1 diamond 110 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
2 diamond 1 nugget 155 3 * 1/8^2 * 3/8
2 diamond 1 ingot 160 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/4
2 diamond 1 apple 165 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
2 diamond 1 emerald 170 3 * 1/8^2 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 ingot 1 apple 30 6 * 3/8 * 1/4 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 ingot 1 emerald 35 6 * 3/8 * 1/4 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 ingot 1 diamond 65 6 * 3/8 * 1/4 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 apple 1 emerald 40 6 * 3/8 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 apple 1 diamond 70 6 * 3/8 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 nugget 1 emerald 1 diamond 75 6 * 3/8 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 ingot 1 apple 1 emerald 55 6 * 1/4 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 ingot 1 apple 1 diamond 75 6 * 1/4 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 ingot 1 emerald 1 diamond 80 6 * 1/4 * 1/8 * 1/8
1 apple 1 emerald 1 diamond 85 6 * 1/8 * 1/8 * 1/8

That should give us a total expected value of 55.546875

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